expected utility

简明释义

期望效用

英英释义

例句

1.When making investment decisions, many people calculate their expected utility 期望效用 to determine the best option.

在做投资决策时，许多人会计算他们的expected utility 期望效用以确定最佳选择。

2.The concept of expected utility 期望效用 helps economists understand consumer behavior under uncertainty.

expected utility 期望效用的概念帮助经济学家理解消费者在不确定性下的行为。

3.In game theory, players often choose strategies that maximize their expected utility 期望效用 based on the potential outcomes.

在博弈论中，玩家通常选择最大化他们的expected utility 期望效用的策略，基于潜在结果。

4.A rational decision-maker will weigh the expected utility 期望效用 of each option before making a choice.

理性的决策者在做出选择之前会权衡每个选项的expected utility 期望效用。

5.Insurance companies use expected utility 期望效用 calculations to set premiums and assess risk.

保险公司使用expected utility 期望效用计算来设定保费和评估风险。

作文

In the realm of decision-making and economics, the concept of expected utility plays a crucial role in helping individuals and organizations make rational choices under uncertainty. The term expected utility refers to the anticipated satisfaction or value derived from different outcomes, weighted by the probabilities of those outcomes occurring. This concept is rooted in the theory of utility, which posits that individuals make decisions based on the perceived benefit or satisfaction they expect to receive from their choices.To better understand expected utility, consider a simple example involving a gamble. Suppose you have the option to participate in a game where you can win $100 with a probability of 0.5 or lose $50 with a probability of 0.5. To calculate the expected utility of this gamble, you would first determine the utility associated with each outcome. Let's say the utility of winning $100 is 100, and the utility of losing $50 is -50. The expected utility can be calculated as follows:Expected Utility = (Probability of Winning * Utility of Winning) + (Probability of Losing * Utility of Losing)Substituting the values, we get:Expected Utility = (0.5 * 100) + (0.5 * -50) = 50 - 25 = 25.Thus, the expected utility of participating in this gamble is 25. This calculation helps the individual assess whether the gamble is worth taking compared to other options available.The concept of expected utility extends beyond simple gambles and can be applied to various real-life situations, such as investment decisions, insurance, and even personal choices like career paths. For instance, when considering an investment in stocks, an investor evaluates the expected utility of potential returns against the risks involved. By analyzing the probabilities of different market scenarios and the corresponding utilities, investors can make more informed decisions that align with their risk tolerance and financial goals.Moreover, the expected utility theory provides a framework for understanding human behavior in uncertain situations. It suggests that individuals do not merely seek to maximize expected monetary value; instead, they also consider their preferences, risk aversion, and the subjective value they assign to different outcomes. This perspective is particularly important in fields like behavioral economics, where researchers study how psychological factors influence decision-making processes.However, it is essential to acknowledge that the expected utility theory has its limitations. Critics argue that people often deviate from the predictions of expected utility maximization due to cognitive biases and emotional influences. For example, individuals may overvalue small probabilities or exhibit loss aversion, leading them to make choices that contradict the principles of expected utility theory.In conclusion, the concept of expected utility serves as a fundamental tool for understanding decision-making under uncertainty. By quantifying the anticipated satisfaction derived from various outcomes, individuals can make more rational choices that align with their preferences and risk profiles. While the theory provides valuable insights into human behavior, it is crucial to recognize its limitations and the impact of psychological factors on decision-making. Ultimately, mastering the concept of expected utility can enhance our ability to navigate complex choices in both personal and professional contexts.

在决策和经济学领域，期望效用的概念在帮助个人和组织在不确定性下做出理性选择方面发挥着至关重要的作用。期望效用一词是指从不同结果中获得的预期满意度或价值，按这些结果发生的概率加权。这个概念源于效用理论，该理论认为个人根据他们期望从选择中获得的利益或满意度来做决定。为了更好地理解期望效用，考虑一个涉及赌博的简单例子。假设你有机会参加一个游戏，你可以以0.5的概率赢得100美元，或以0.5的概率输掉50美元。要计算这场赌博的期望效用，首先需要确定与每个结果相关的效用。假设赢得100美元的效用是100，而输掉50美元的效用是-50。期望效用可以这样计算：期望效用 = (赢的概率 * 赢的效用) + (输的概率 * 输的效用)代入数值，我们得到：期望效用 = (0.5 * 100) + (0.5 * -50) = 50 - 25 = 25。因此，参与这场赌博的期望效用为25。这一计算帮助个人评估赌博是否值得参与，相较于可用的其他选项。期望效用的概念不仅限于简单的赌博，还可以应用于各种现实生活中的情况，如投资决策、保险，甚至个人选择如职业道路。例如，在考虑股票投资时，投资者会评估潜在回报的期望效用与所涉及的风险之间的关系。通过分析不同市场情景的概率及相应的效用，投资者可以做出更明智的决策，以符合他们的风险承受能力和财务目标。此外，期望效用理论提供了一个框架，用于理解人们在不确定情况下的行为。它表明，个人不仅仅寻求最大化预期货币价值；相反，他们还考虑自己的偏好、风险厌恶以及对不同结果赋予的主观价值。这一观点在行为经济学等领域尤为重要，在这些领域，研究人员研究心理因素如何影响决策过程。然而，必须承认的是，期望效用理论也有其局限性。批评者认为，由于认知偏见和情感影响，人们经常偏离期望效用最大化的预测。例如，个人可能会高估小概率事件的价值，或者表现出损失厌恶，导致他们做出与期望效用理论原则相悖的选择。总之，期望效用的概念作为理解不确定性下决策的基本工具。通过量化从各种结果中获得的预期满意度，个人可以做出更理性的选择，以符合他们的偏好和风险特征。虽然该理论提供了对人类行为的宝贵见解，但认识到其局限性以及心理因素对决策的影响也是至关重要的。最终，掌握期望效用的概念可以增强我们在个人和职业背景中应对复杂选择的能力。