single observer forecast

简明释义

单站预报

英英释义

例句

1.Using a single observer forecast, the team was able to anticipate the storm's impact.

利用单一观察者预测，团队能够预见到风暴的影响。

2.For this event, we will use a single observer forecast to determine the best time for outdoor activities.

对于这个活动，我们将使用单一观察者预测来确定户外活动的最佳时间。

3.The single observer forecast indicated a significant drop in temperatures next week.

该单一观察者预测显示下周气温将显著下降。

4.In our project, we relied on a single observer forecast to make decisions about resource allocation.

在我们的项目中，我们依赖于单一观察者预测来做出资源分配的决定。

5.The meteorologist presented a single observer forecast to predict tomorrow's weather.

气象学家提供了一个单一观察者预测来预测明天的天气。

作文

In the realm of meteorology and weather prediction, the concept of a single observer forecast plays a crucial role in understanding how predictions are made and communicated. A single observer forecast refers to a weather prediction that is generated based on the observations and interpretations of one individual meteorologist or weather observer. This type of forecast can be particularly useful in certain scenarios, especially when rapid decision-making is required or when local knowledge is paramount. The primary advantage of a single observer forecast is the speed at which it can be produced. In situations where time is of the essence, such as during severe weather events, having a single expert make a quick assessment can lead to timely warnings for the public. For instance, if a hurricane is approaching a coastline, a meteorologist can quickly analyze the latest satellite images and atmospheric data to provide an immediate forecast. This is critical for emergency management officials who need to make decisions about evacuations and resource allocation. However, there are also limitations to relying solely on a single observer forecast. One significant drawback is the potential for bias. Every observer has their own experiences and perspectives, which can influence their interpretation of data. For example, if a meteorologist has previously experienced a severe storm in a particular area, they might overestimate the severity of an approaching storm based on past experiences rather than current data. This subjective nature can lead to inconsistencies in forecasts and may result in public mistrust if predictions are frequently proven inaccurate. Moreover, a single observer forecast lacks the collaborative input that comes from multiple meteorologists working together. In many meteorological organizations, forecasts are typically generated by teams of experts who share their insights and analyses. This collaborative approach helps to mitigate individual biases and provides a more comprehensive understanding of the weather patterns at play. By pooling their knowledge and expertise, these teams can create more accurate and reliable forecasts. Despite these challenges, there are instances where a single observer forecast is not only appropriate but necessary. For example, in remote areas where access to technology and resources is limited, having a local observer who understands the unique climatic conditions can be invaluable. These individuals often have a deep understanding of their local environment, which allows them to make informed predictions that might not be captured by broader models. In conclusion, the single observer forecast serves as a vital tool in the field of weather prediction. While it offers the benefit of speed and localized knowledge, it is essential to recognize its limitations, particularly concerning bias and the absence of collaborative input. As technology continues to advance and improve the accuracy of weather models, the role of the single observer forecast may evolve, but it will always hold a place in the rich tapestry of meteorological practice. Understanding both its strengths and weaknesses is key to making the most of this forecasting method.

在气象学和天气预测领域，单一观察者预报的概念在理解预测的生成和传播中发挥着至关重要的作用。单一观察者预报是指基于一个个体气象学家或天气观察者的观察和解读生成的天气预测。这种类型的预报在某些情况下特别有用，尤其是在需要快速决策或地方知识至关重要时。单一观察者预报的主要优势在于其生成的速度。在时间至关重要的情况下，例如在严重天气事件期间，让一位专家迅速做出评估可以为公众提供及时的警告。例如，如果一场飓风正逼近海岸，气象学家可以快速分析最新的卫星图像和大气数据，以提供即时的预测。这对需要就撤离和资源配置做出决策的应急管理官员至关重要。然而，仅仅依靠单一观察者预报也存在局限性。一个显著的缺点是潜在的偏见。每个观察者都有自己的经验和视角，这可能会影响他们对数据的解读。例如，如果一位气象学家在特定地区经历过严重的风暴，他们可能会根据过去的经历高估即将来临的风暴的严重性，而不是依据当前的数据。这种主观性可能导致预测的不一致，并可能导致公众的不信任，尤其是当预测经常被证明不准确时。此外，单一观察者预报缺乏来自多位气象学家协作输入的优势。在许多气象组织中，预测通常由一组专家共同生成，他们分享见解和分析。这种协作方法有助于减轻个人偏见，并提供对天气模式更全面的理解。通过汇集他们的知识和专业技能，这些团队能够创建更准确和可靠的预测。尽管面临这些挑战，但在某些情况下，单一观察者预报不仅适用，而且是必要的。例如，在偏远地区，技术和资源有限的情况下，拥有一位了解独特气候条件的地方观察者是无价的。这些人通常对他们的本地环境有深入的了解，使他们能够做出可能未被更广泛模型捕捉到的明智预测。总之，单一观察者预报在天气预测领域中是一个重要工具。虽然它提供了速度和地方知识的好处，但必须认识到其局限性，特别是在偏见和缺乏协作输入方面。随着技术的不断进步，提高天气模型的准确性，单一观察者预报的角色可能会发展，但它始终在气象实践的丰富画卷中占有一席之地。理解其优缺点是充分利用这一预测方法的关键。