estimated probability

简明释义

估计概率

英英释义

例句

1.The estimated probability 估计概率 of winning the lottery is extremely low.

中奖的估计概率 estimated probability极低。

2.The estimated probability 估计概率 of a stock market crash can be calculated using historical data.

股市崩盘的估计概率 estimated probability可以通过历史数据计算得出。

3.We need to assess the estimated probability 估计概率 of project completion within the deadline.

我们需要评估项目在截止日期内完成的估计概率 estimated probability。

4.In clinical trials, researchers often report the estimated probability 估计概率 of a treatment's success.

在临床试验中，研究人员通常报告治疗成功的估计概率 estimated probability。

5.The weather forecast gives an estimated probability 估计概率 of rain at 70% for tomorrow.

天气预报显示明天降雨的估计概率 estimated probability为70%。

作文

In the realm of statistics and data analysis, the concept of estimated probability plays a crucial role in decision-making processes. Understanding this term can significantly enhance our ability to make informed choices based on data. Estimated probability refers to the likelihood of a particular event occurring, calculated using available data and statistical methods. This estimation is not always precise; rather, it provides a reasonable approximation based on the information at hand. For instance, consider a weather forecasting scenario. Meteorologists analyze various atmospheric conditions, historical weather patterns, and current data to determine the chance of rain tomorrow. If they estimate a 70% chance of rain, this figure represents the estimated probability of precipitation based on their analysis. It does not guarantee that it will rain, but it indicates a high likelihood based on the evidence available. The significance of estimated probability extends beyond weather forecasting. In the field of finance, investors often rely on estimated probabilities when assessing the risk associated with different investment options. For example, if an analyst predicts a 60% estimated probability of a stock increasing in value over the next year, investors can use this information to guide their decisions. While the actual outcome may differ, the estimated probability helps them weigh potential risks and rewards. Moreover, estimated probability is also fundamental in scientific research. Researchers use statistical models to estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes based on experimental data. For instance, in clinical trials, scientists may calculate the estimated probability of a new drug being effective compared to a placebo. This estimation guides further research and development, influencing whether the drug should proceed to the next phase of testing. However, it is essential to recognize the limitations of estimated probability. The accuracy of these estimates heavily depends on the quality and quantity of the data used. If the data is flawed or insufficient, the estimated probabilities may lead to misguided conclusions. Therefore, critical thinking and skepticism are vital when interpreting these figures. Additionally, estimated probability does not account for unforeseen variables that could influence the outcome. Events such as natural disasters, sudden market changes, or unexpected scientific discoveries can drastically alter probabilities. In conclusion, estimated probability serves as a valuable tool in various fields, facilitating better decision-making by providing a framework for understanding uncertainty. Whether in meteorology, finance, or scientific research, grasping the concept of estimated probability allows individuals and organizations to navigate complexities and make choices grounded in data. By acknowledging its limitations and applying it judiciously, we can harness the power of estimated probabilities to improve our understanding of the world and enhance our decision-making processes.

在统计学和数据分析领域，估计概率的概念在决策过程中发挥着至关重要的作用。理解这个术语可以显著提高我们基于数据做出明智选择的能力。估计概率是指某一特定事件发生的可能性，它是通过可用数据和统计方法计算得出的。这种估算并不总是精确的；相反，它提供了一个基于现有信息的合理近似。例如，考虑天气预报的场景。气象学家分析各种大气条件、历史天气模式和当前数据，以确定明天下雨的机会。如果他们估计明天下雨的概率为70%，这个数字代表了基于他们分析的降水的估计概率。这并不保证会下雨，但它表明根据可用证据的高可能性。估计概率的重要性超越了天气预报。在金融领域，投资者通常依赖于估计概率来评估不同投资选项的风险。例如，如果分析师预测某只股票在未来一年内增值的估计概率为60%，投资者可以利用这一信息来指导他们的决策。虽然实际结果可能不同，但估计概率帮助他们权衡潜在的风险与回报。此外，估计概率在科学研究中也是基础性的。研究人员使用统计模型来根据实验数据估算某些结果的可能性。例如，在临床试验中，科学家可能会计算新药与安慰剂相比的有效性估计概率。这种估算指导进一步的研究和开发，影响药物是否应进入下一阶段的测试。然而，认识到估计概率的局限性是至关重要的。这些估计的准确性在很大程度上依赖于所用数据的质量和数量。如果数据存在缺陷或不足，估计的概率可能导致误导性的结论。因此，在解读这些数字时，批判性思维和怀疑态度至关重要。此外，估计概率并不考虑可能影响结果的不可预见变量。自然灾害、突发市场变化或意外科学发现等事件都可能极大地改变概率。总之，估计概率在各个领域作为一种有价值的工具，通过提供理解不确定性的框架，促进了更好的决策。无论是在气象学、金融还是科学研究中，掌握估计概率的概念使个人和组织能够驾驭复杂性，并做出以数据为基础的选择。通过承认其局限性并谨慎应用，我们可以利用估计概率的力量来改善我们对世界的理解，增强我们的决策过程。